What is a ValueBet?
The ValueBet (or “value odds”) is the odds offered by a bookmaker on an event that are higher than the real odds estimated through statistical analysis.
bookmaker odds>real odds = ValueBet
In the long term, systematically betting on ValueBet guarantees a positive return equal to the percentage difference between the two odds.
Bookmaking: How bookmakers calculate it
Bookmaking is the determination of the statistical probability of a given event occurring. It is initially calculated as a percentage and then converted into decimal odds. The bookmaker’s margin (profit) is distributed across all outcomes in the schedule.
In this example, by betting with odds of 1.6 on an event whose actual probability corresponds to odds of 1.4, the expected long-term advantage is approximately 9.93% of the invested capital.
The technical picket and the calculation of the real quota
Technical picket is the statistical analysis process that allows us to estimate the true odds of an event. It is based on two levels of analysis:
1 – Historical trend in previous championships
Home and away performance, aggregated statistics over multiple seasons, long-term trends.
2 – Historical trend in previous championships
Home and away performance, aggregated statistics over multiple seasons, long-term trends.
3 – Calculating the actual share
Convert the estimated probability into decimal odds and compare it with the bookmaker’s offer to identify the ValueBet.
Limits of manually calculated ValueBets
Identifying ValueBet with its technical pick presents some structural difficulties:
- No predictions and 100% accurate: you play against professional bookmakers who have to make a profit.
- Requires in-depth technical knowledge: teams, players, recent form and championship history.
- Bookmakers use professionals and advanced tools to find a systematic and very rare error.
The exchange market as an alternative reference
Exchange markets allow bettors to match supply and demand for odds. They function like a stock market in which:
- To bet means to declare that an event will occur.
- To bank means to declare that an event will not occur.
The exchange market’s backing odds can be considered a collective true odds, the result of analyzing multiple players. If the bookmaker’s odds are higher than this, it’s a Value Bet.
bookmaker odds > exchange odds (bet) = ValueBet
Exchange limits for reference:
- Limited coverage: only major leagues, a few sports, and a few event types.
- Low liquidity: Low trading volume does not guarantee that the quote reflects reliable analysis.
The FinderBet Approach: Automatic Value Bets
Who are the major experts in the sports market?
The bookmakers.
FinderBet adopts a completely different strategy: instead of calculating its own technical pick, it compares the odds of all bookmakers. When one bookmaker’s odds are different from those of the others, the difference is automatically detected as a potential Value Bet.
A bookmaker can deviate its odds from the average for three main reasons:
- Competition: decides to offer increased odds to attract bettors.
- Lack of updating: does not monitor all the outcomes of all the events of other bookmakers.
- Judgment error: making a mistake in estimating the probability of a specific outcome.
The benchmark used by FinderBet to determine market share is the Asian markets, particularly Pinnacle (PS3838), which are considered the most efficient and accurate globally.
Long-term strategy and money management
Value bets don’t always produce an immediate return. The FinderBet strategy is based on:
- Long-term bets: Profitability emerges on a high volume of bets.
- Balanced money management: capital is managed to withstand short-term fluctuations.
- Auto-reporting: The day after the match is played, the Profit Tracker automatically updates with the outcome of the bet.
Focused on the result
While others study for hours, you already have the answer, FinderBet:
- Automatically analyzes all championships, all matches, all odds
- Calculate billions of combinations in minutes
- It delivers you only ready-to-play ValueBets
- The next day, Profit Tracker will show you your results. It automatically reports itself.
