Surebet. What it is and how it is calculated

Comprehensive guide to Sure Betting or “Sure Betting,” abbreviated Surebet, and what is the mathematical technique that allows you to have a certain return regardless of how the event will turn out. We begin by talking about betting in general, and then delve into the dynamics that generate the mathematical equations that are intended to bring you, step by step, to create a 100% guaranteed steady profit.

Betting on an event means wagering a sum of money on the predicted outcome of a match.

Below is an example of a quote for a match between two tennis players, Tennis Player1 VS Tennis Player2, the results of which are hypothetically quoted by BOOKMAKER1:

I bet €10 on Outcome1, i.e. Tennis Player1 winning.

Betting a sum of money on the expected outcome of a match is a gamble, that is, there is an inherent percentage of risk. In fact, if the event occurs, the resulting win is = 10*1.4 = €14 (net €4 = 14 – 10 played). It follows that, if Tennis Player2-Outcome2 wins, I will have lost €10.

But to avoid taking any risks, can I bet on the opposite outcomes, that is, bet on both tennis players winning?

Let’s see what happens if we bet €20, equally distributed according to the odds, on both winning tennis players:

In this case it is demonstrated that, betting on opposite outcomes, you always lose:

outcome1 the loss is = 19.19 – 20 = -€ 0.81
outcome2 the loss is = 19.18 – 20 = -€ 0.82
The negative margin is the bookmaker’s profit

Sports arbitrage or surebet, derives from sure betting: a safe bet, is a mathematical situation in which, by always betting on opposite outcomes of an event, a sure profit is always generated, therefore a 100% guaranteed profit.

Let’s take the example of the match, in which Tennis Player 1 plays against Tennis Player 2. This match is quoted by Book1 and Book2, and in particular we have:

Respecting the definition, making Surebet means betting on opposite outcomes of an event in which a sure profit is always generated, let’s proceed with the calculation of the various combinations of opposite outcomes:

1. BOOK1: I bet by distributing €20 on both outcomes:

Book1/Outcome1 = 1.4 x 13.71 = €19.19 – 20 played = €-0.81
Book1/Outcome2 = 3.05 x 6.29 = €19.18 – 20 played = €-0.82

2. BOOK2: I bet by distributing €20 on both outcomes:

Book2/Outcome1 = 1.55 x 12.62 = €19.56 – €20 played = €-0.44
Book2/Outcome2 = 2.65 x 7.38 = €19.56 – €20 played = €-0.44

In both cases you lose

because the negative margin that is generated is the bookmaker’s profit:

BOOK1 € -0.81 on €20 = -4.05%

BOOK2 € -0.44 on €20 = -2.20%

 

What if we instead applied a mathematical technique, which would exploit the decimal differences between the two bookmakers’ results?

3. I bet by distributing €20 in the following way:

BOOK2-RESULT1 = 1.55 x 13.26 = €20.55 – 20 played = + €0.55
BOOK1-RESULT2 = 3.05 x 6.74 = €20.56 – 20 played = + €0.56

You WIN mathematically, this is a surebet:

BOOK1 € +0.55 on €20 = +2.75%
BOOK2 € +0.56 on €20 = +2.8%

SURE WIN WITH A NET INCOME OF

SUREBET = + 2.8 %

In our example, the two bookmakers can quote, and therefore evaluate, the results of an event differently and this applies to any event of any sport, because:

1. They want to compete with each other and by wanting to differentiate themselves they can quote a higher outcome
2. They cannot control all the outcomes of all the events of others.
3. Making a simple error in assessing the outcome.

The finderBet service was created to guarantee what other services do not offer or offer only partially, because:

• They mostly use bookmakers that do not accept the registration of Italian customers
• Commercial software has one or more of these characteristics:
  • They are very expensive
  • They take too long to update surebets, so they would be invalid because the odds are very fickle.
  • They are not easy to use or they are not intuitive and immediate
  • They calculate surebets on a few markets and a few events of a match
  • They have a limited number of championships, usually the most important ones
• People think that betting is a game of chance, while sports arbitrage is just a mathematical calculation that analyzes the positive odds margin.
• It is almost impossible to find/calculate surebets manually
• Some believe that it is a complex process, which involves risking money.

The process of finding the odds and performing the calculations that lead to surebets is very long and can easily lead to mistakes. Just think:

how many sports are quoted (≃ 30)
for how many championships (30 sports * 15 championships ≃ 450)
for how many matches (450 championships * 15 matches ≃ 6,750)
for how many outcomes (6,750 matches x 300 outcomes ≃ 2,025,000)
= Billions of possible combinations

But finderBet does all this automatically:

Scan in minutes
All leagues of the sports scheduled
All matches
All odds that produce a surebet
Calculate BILLIONS of combinations every time

AND WITHOUT LIMITS
=
finderBet FIND THE SUREBET FOR YOU!