ValueBet: Prediction, technical pick and value odds
Comprehensive guide explaining the meaning of ValueBet or “Value Bet,” how, through the analysis of the trends of the last matches and the trends of the previous leagues, called the technical picket line, we arrive at determining the “Value Quote.”
We report some methods by which ValueBet is determined and how, through analyses, finderBet adopts a different strategy that guarantees you an annuity based on long-term plays.
What is a ValueBet?
The ValueBet or “value odds” is the odds predicted by a bookmaker of an event of a match, which turns out to be higher than what is considered to be fair (real odds).
bookmaker’s share > real share
Of course, it is not easy to identify a ValueBet if the definition “believed to be fair” is based on a subjective judgment of the bettor, which must be as precise as possible, carrying out a statistical study (technical picket) on the trends of the last matches and the trends of the previous championships, determining the real share.
We define and explain some essential concepts and how the ValueBets on the market are evaluated.
What is it and how is it calculated by bookmakers?
Bookkeeping is the determination of the statistical probability that a certain event will occur. Initially it is calculated as a percentage and then expressed as a decimal: quota.
Let’s give an example and how to transform, with the reverse process, the odds into a percentage and then calculate the bookmaker’s profit:
The allibramento ( bookmaker’s profit) is spread by the bookmaker, in a different way, on any event of any match (schedule), and determines the profit because, as the saying goes, the house always wants to win.
What is the technical stake and the process of calculating the actual share?
Starting from our example, 1.6 concerns the victory of Team1 over Team2. From a statistical analysis of the latest matches and the trend in previous championships (technical picket), our prediction is that the real odds of Team1’s victory is 1.4 (prediction), so we will have:
This is a ValueBet: By determining that I agree to bet odds higher than those predicted by me (real odds), in the long term I am destined to earn the estimated percentage (9.93%), according to the invested capital.
What are the limits of ValueBet:
- No one is able to make 100% valid predictions: we are playing against professionals, bookmakers have to make money
- We need to be very competent in the sport we are analyzing: knowing the teams or players, the clashes in the short term (latest plays) and in the long term (previous championships)
- Bookmakers make use of professionals in the sector and have advanced tools for analyzing the markets. If the definition that they rarely make mistakes is true, it is equally rare to find ValueBets.
Some people rely on exchange market quotations, for the determination of the actual quota, what is the difference?
We explain what the exchange market is: There are online services that allow the meeting of supply and demand of odds on sporting events. To all intents and purposes it is a stock market, in which there are those who buy a share and those who sell it. All the actors involved are therefore players who bet or lay odds.
Point: I declare that an event occurs
Bank: I declare that that event does not occur
There are two exchange markets present in Italy: betfair and betflag. Below is an example of a market on a specific event:
We see that in betting the highest odds (in favor of event 1) are 2.2 with an available capital to bet of €57, while in laying (against the event) it is 2.26 with an available capital of €46, and so on rest of the events.
It is important to underline that the available capital is what you can bet on and, if it ends, you can bet at a lower price with the attached capital (in the betting example: 2.18 – €101). In addition to this, being an open market, there are continuous variations in share and associated capital, resulting in continuous fluctuations.
In summary, if the bookmaker’s odds are higher than the exchange market’s stake odds, it is a ValueBet:
bookmaker’s share > exchange market stake share = ValueBet
The exchange is a market in which supply and demand for odds meet between players and they tend to “study” which is the best odds for or against an event, therefore it can be declared that it appears to be a technical picket determined by a group of people. From here it can be deduced that the betting odds can be defined as real odds.
Below is a graph of the capital traded on our example:
What are the limits of this type of ValueBetdetermined by the exchange markets:
- There are few championships available, only the main ones, not all world championships
- There are few sports available
- There are few types of events available.
- The capital share exchanged (graphic example: €609) does not guarantee that the share can be considered a share of value, as there are few plays (opinions) of the players
FinderBet calculates ValueBets for you, how?
Who are the major experts on the sports market?
However good we may be at calculating the technical stake, it will never be 100% certain, because the real experts are the bookmakers, who have to earn.
FinderBet adopts a completely different strategy, comparing the individual odds offered by all the bookmakers (the experts), as the same event can be interpreted by the bookmakers themselves differently and for this reason they can:
- Compete and quote a higher outcome than others
- Not being able to control all the outcomes of all the events of others
- Making a simple error in evaluating the outcome.
Finderbet, through complex calculations, finds the ValueBet by applying the following basic rules:
- An event must be quoted by at least 11 bookmakers
- The ValueBet (value odds) stands out because it must be quoted by only one bookmaker of all those examined
- The long-term return percentage is calculated through statistical, arithmetic and odds comparison calculations, for the real annuity stay at this page .
- You must establish an income strategy based on long-term plays, which is fundamental to being successful and having a solid strategy, which allows you to support many plays, not always with an immediate return.
For information on the tools available within the valuebet service, please refer to the reference guide , where you can learn how to:
- Set account filters
- Set and save environment filters
- Save your games with the specific guide of the Profit Tracker
Now all you have to do is WIN because…
finderBet does everything automatically:
Scan in minutes
All sports championships scheduled
All odds that produce a ValueBet
Calculate BILLIONS of math operations every time
finderBet FIND THE VALUEBET FOR YOU!