ValueBet: What is and how it is generated

Complete guide that explains the meaning of ValueBet or “Value Bet”, which through the analysis of the trends of the last matches and the trends of the previous championships, called technical pick, you arrive at determining the “Value Quota”.

We report some methods by which ValueBet is determined and how, through analyses, finderBet adopts a different strategy that favors an annuity based on long-term plays.

The ValueBet or “value odds” is the odds predicted by a bookmaker for a match event, which are higher than what is considered to be fair (real odds).

bookmaker’s share > real share

Of course, it is not easy to identify a ValueBet if the definition “deemed to be fair” is based on a subjective judgment of the bettor, which must be as precise as possible, by carrying out a statistical study (technical picket) on the trends of the last matches and trends of the previous championships, determining the real odds.

We define and explain some essential concepts and how ValueBets found on the market are evaluated.

Bookmaking is the determination of the statistical probability that a certain event will occur. It is initially calculated as a percentage and then expressed in decimal: odds.
Let’s take an example and how to transform, with the reverse process, the odds into a percentage and then calculating the bookmaker’s profit:

The bookmaker’s profit is spread by the bookmaker differently over any event of any match (schedule), and determines the profit because, as the saying goes, the house always wants to win.

Starting from our example, 1.6 concerns the victory of Team1 over Team2. From a statistical analysis of the last matches and the trend in the previous championships (technical pick), our prediction is that the real odds of the victory of Team1 are 1.4 (prediction), so we will have:

This is a ValueBet: By determining that I agree to bet on odds higher than those I predicted (real odds), in the long term I am destined to earn the estimated percentage (9.93%), according to the invested capital.

What are the limits of ValueBets:

• Nobody can make 100% valid predictions: we are playing against professionals, bookmakers have to earn money
• You need to be very knowledgeable about the sport you are analyzing: know the teams or the games, the clashes in the short term (last games) and in the long term (previous championships)
• Bookmakers employ industry professionals and have advanced tools for market analysis. If the definition that they rarely make mistakes is true, it is equally rare to find ValueBets.

Let’s explain what the exchange market is: There are online services that allow the meeting of supply and demand of odds on sporting events. In all respects it is a stock market, in which there are those who buy a share and those who sell it. All the actors involved are therefore players who bet or bank odds.

To bet: I declare that an event occurs

To bank: I declare that that event will not occur

There are two exchange markets in Italy: betfair and betflag. Below is an example of a market on a specific event:

We see that in backing the highest odds (in favor of event 1) are 2.2 with a capital available to bet of €57, while in laying (against the event) they are 2.26 with a capital available to bet of €46, and so on for the rest of the events.

It is important to underline that the available capital is what you can bet and, if it ends, you can bet at a lower rate with the attached capital (in the example in bet: 2.18 – € 101). In addition to this, being an open market, there are continuous variations in share and associated capital, causing continuous oscillations.

In summary, if the bookmaker’s odds are higher than the exchange market’s odds, it is a ValueBet:

bookmaker odds > exchange market odds = ValueBet

The exchange is a market where supply and demand of odds meet between players and these tend to “study” which is the best odds in favor or against an event, therefore it can be declared that it is a technical picket determined by a group of people. From this we can deduce that the stake quota can be defined as the real quota.

Below is a chart of the capital traded on our example:

What are the limits of this type of ValueBet determined by the exchange markets:

• There are few leagues available, only the major ones, not all world leagues
• There are few sports available
• There are only a few event types available.
• The capital amount exchanged (graphic example: €609), does not guarantee that the amount can be considered a value amount, as there are few plays (opinions) from the players.

Who are the major experts on the sports market?

The bookmakers.

No matter how good we are at calculating the technical pick, it will never be 100% sure, because the real experts are the bookmakers, who have to earn.

FinderBet adopts a completely different strategy, comparing the individual odds offered by all the bookmakers (the experts), as the same event can be interpreted differently by the same bookmakers and for this reason they can:

1. To compete with each other and quote a higher outcome than others
2. Not being able to control all the outcomes of all other people’s events
3. Making a simple error in assessing the outcome.

Finderbet, through calculations, finds the ValueBets by applying two distinct rules:

1. If there is an overpricing compared to the average Asian markets, such as pinnacle.com
2. The valueBet (value odds) stands out from the average odds of all bookmakers.

In both evaluations different valuebets are found and all are published in our service.

Obviously, you need to establish a long-term income strategy, with money management that allows you to sustain many plays, as they do not always have an immediate return.

For information on the tools available within the valuebet service, refer to the reference guide, where you can learn how to:

• Set up account filters
• Set and save environment filters
• Save your games with the dedicated guide of the Profit Tracker

Now all you have to do is WIN because

finderBet does everything automatically:

Scan in minutes
All the leagues of the sports scheduled
All the matches
All the odds that produce a ValueBet
Calculate BILLIONS of mathematical operations every time
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finderBet FIND THE VALUEBET FOR YOU!